14/11 • COP 29

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius instead of 2 degrees would significantly reduce the risks and effects of climate change by:

• Reducing extreme weather events. While both thresholds would still result in more frequent and intense heatwaves, storms, droughts, and flooding, the impacts are expected to be more severe at 2 degrees.
  
  
• Easing biodiversity loss and ecosystem risks: Warming beyond 1.5 degrees would likely lead to widespread coral reef die-offs, significant losses in Arctic sea ice, and disruption of ecosystems that cannot adapt quickly to climate shifts.
  
  
• Sustaining human health and food security: Food production, water supply, and public health would be more severely affected by higher levels of warming, disproportionately impacting vulnerable communities and increasing the risk of malnutrition, disease, and displacement.
  
  
• Slowing rising sea levels: While sea levels will continue to rise even at 1.5 degrees, limiting warming to this level would reduce the speed and extent, allowing more time for communities to adapt.

IPCC puts the situation more succinctly:

..."there is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all."

According to the National Aeronautical and Space Association (NASA), Earth was about 2.45 degrees Fahrenheit (or about 1.36 degrees Celsius) warmer in 2023 than in the late 19th-century (1850-1900) preindustrial average.

 

If current trends continue, we could exceed the 1.5-degree limit within the next decade or so. The 1.5-degree threshold serves as a rallying point for climate action and is used to gauge the adequacy of countries’ climate commitments and policies.

 

Sadly, but not surprisingly, Least Developed Countries (LDC's) bear the brunt of climate impacts, despite contributing the least to global emissions.

These impacts include devastating droughts, floods, and storms which disrupt livelihoods, exacerbate poverty, and hinder development.

For these countries, the 1.5°C limit isn't just a temperature; it represents a tipping point. When exceeded, it will bring with it more frequent and severe natural disasters, water shortages, crop failures, and health crises.

COP29 will serve as an essential checkpoint for assessing global progress toward preventing 1.5°C, especially since COP28’s Global Stocktake revealed that "... we are not on track to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and the window for meaningful change [is] quickly closing".

Reaching or exceeding 1.5°C would also signal a failure to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and could mean a future marked by heightened instability, resource scarcity, and climate impacts that are more extreme and less manageable.